In common with other high-income countries, a key feature of Australia’s population trends since Federation has been a shift towards smaller families. The fertility rate has fallen from over 3.5 children per woman in 1901 to just under 1.5 in 2024, although this decline has not been linear. Periods of falling fertility have frequently prompted political concern, parliamentary inquiries, and debate about potential policy responses. Understanding how politicians interpret fertility decline is central to interpreting how fertility has been debated. 

Using parliamentary documents, including Hansard transcripts from the Senate and House of Representatives, we analyse how discussions on the causes of low fertility have shifted over time. In the early twentieth century, low birth rates were often attributed to moral decay and selfishness. By the 1960s, attention shifted to contraception as a proximate cause, while smaller families were still assumed to be desired. From the 1980s onward, intensifying in the 1990s and 2000s, discourse increasingly suggested many people wanted more children than they were having, emphasising work–family constraints. Since the 2010s, debate has focused on housing affordability and cost-of-living pressures. This transition from moral to structural explanations reshapes the nature of policy responses to low fertility.

Working together for many years in the School of Demography, ANU, the presenters have a vast and influential body of research in fertility and family demography. Edith Gray is Professor in the School, and is also Co-Convenor of the Population Lab. Her research focuses on childbearing in Australia and other middle and high-income countries, with a emphasis on social-policy setting. Anna Reimondos is Research Officer in the School, and author of over 30 publications, specialising in family and social demography, and data quality. Ann Evans is a Professor with a research focus in family demography, and currently the Interim Deputy Vice-Chancellor (Research and Innovation).

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